Schedule Edge
Which teams a season's schedule favored, counted in games with a real rest edge and priced in wins. Not a prediction — much of the gap is structural, and each season stands alone.
The market check — season win totals
If a schedule edge compounded over a season, the teams at the top of this page should beat their preseason win-total lines. Across 31 seasons of archived lines, they don’t:
| Net edge games | Went overpercent of the bucket | Team-seasons |
|---|---|---|
| +10 or better | 48.0% | 102 |
| +5 to +9 | 46.5% | 144 |
| −4 to +4 | 49.5% | 386 |
| −9 to −5 | 45.4% | 163 |
| −10 or worse | 47.7% | 86 |
No gradient, in either direction. The correlation between a team’s net edge games and its finish against the line is r = -0.02 across 884 team-seasons — statistically zero. The rest edge is real game to game, and that record lives on the Model Results page. But over a full season it amounts to a few possessions here and there, and the market’s win totals already price the schedule. This is a null result, published on purpose: season over/unders are not beatable from this page, and this site won’t pretend otherwise.
Lines from the sportsoddshistory.com archive (hosted at covers.com), 1993-94 through 2025-26. No lines were published for the 1998-99 lockout, and 2019-20 is skipped here because its season was suspended at 63 to 67 games — a preseason win total never got a full schedule to resolve against. 3 pushes are excluded from the rates; overs hit 47.9%overall — win totals lean under league-wide, edge or no edge. The archive’s win count matched this site’s own game records for every one of the 884 team-seasons before anything was computed.