PRIOR-ROUND GRIND · SERIES WIN RATE
HOW THIS IS CALCULATEDPlayoff Rest
The round before decides the round after. How a long series taxes the team that survived it, and what that costs the model's picks in the bracket below.
THE POSTSEASON HAS NO REST
2,545 of 2,545PLAYOFF GAMES AFTER GAME 1
BOTH TEAMS ON THE SAME REST
BOTH TEAMS ON THE SAME REST
Every single one. Once a series starts the two teams share a schedule, so neither can be more rested. Playoff rest has exactly one place to exist: the wait before Game 1 — and only 277 of 600 Game 1s were even.
THE GRIND TAX
Beating a team that just survived a long series is easier. Going the distance to win one round leaves you worse off in the next.
+16.5 pointsBETTER YOUR ODDS WHEN THE OTHER TEAM ARRIVES OFF A LONG SERIES · ROUNDS 2+
They closed their last round early68.9%
74 SERIESThey went the distance85.4%
89 SERIESBoth bars are teams that closed their own last round early, so the only thing changing is the opponent. When you went the distance too, the edge reverses — 65.9% against a fresh opponent, 59.7% against a tired one.